Enablement of Urban Citizen Support for Crisis Response (ENSURE)

Sub-Project "Population Behavior and Scenarios"


Disaster Research Unit (DRU)

Branch office of the Institute of Social and Cultural Anthropology



Financial support:

Funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Societal Dimensions of Security)

Funding Code: 13N12812

Cooperation partners:

Fraunhofer FOKUS

Disaster Research Unit, Freie Universität Berlin

Research Forum on Public Safety and Security, Freie Universität Berlin

Institute for Technology and Management, Technische Universität Berlin

German Red Cross (DRK)

Berlin Fire Department (BFw)

German Association for Data Protection and Data Security (GDD)

HFC Human-Factor-Consult GmbH


Aug 01, 2013 — Jul 31, 2016

Funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the project "Enablement of Urban Citizen Support for Crisis Response (ENSURE)" aims at developing innovative participative approaches to future population warning systems through a deepened understanding of the effects of different hazards in urban areas.

The sub-project „Population Behavior and Scenario Development“, jointly addressed by the Disaster Research Unit and the Research Forum on Public Safety and Security at Freie Universität Berlin, is focusing on the so-called isolation phase: the first period after the onset of a crisis or disaster, when people have to depend on themselves and help from outside, namely professional assistance, has not yet arrived. Against this background, our primary objective is to reach an in-depth understanding of human behavior during the isolation-phase which is based on concrete scenarios.

Our secondary objectives are:

  • to reach a more realistic assessment of human behavior in concrete damage and loss scenarios on both, the part of the population as well as the part of professional assistance
  • to better and more realistic, estimate the situation considering this expectable behavior in the social context even before reaching the site of the event
  • to develop concrete suggestions for the integration of helpers for the beginning assistance intervention
  • to map/reflect these action scenarios, which incorporate not only system factors like in classical threat scenarios but also the population as an actor
  • to integrate these findings in (further) education and training concepts for professional assistants, and
  • to contribute to a speedy return to orderly action patterns after the onset of a disaster and thereby foster social resilience

Methods and Outcomes:

  • extensive literature review
  • Analysis of system factors
  • scenario writing
  • scenarios of probable human behavior during extreme events/crisis
  • evaluation of tests and trainings
  • suggestions to optimize the tool and manual
  • testing and evaluation of training concept
  • manual for further education for NGOs in disaster

Further information (in German):

Downloads (in German):
Project brochure