The article distinguishes between three outcomes of suspension terminations: compliance by the state, RIO capitulation, and a draw. Based on research on cooperation and sanctions, Lukas Grundsfeld develops a theoretical framework and tests it using statistical analysis of suspension terminations between 1990 and 2024 across 70 RIOs, as well as two in-depth case studies. He finds that the type of suspension termination depends on the unity and coherence of the RIO, the relative vulnerability of the RIO and the state to each other’s pressure, and the perceived severity of the violation of the RIO’s community norms. If the RIO is united, the target state is vulnerable to its pressure, and the RIO perceives the transgression as a severe violation of its community norms, suspensions end through target state compliance. In contrast, weak RIO cohesion, low vulnerability to pressure, and lower perceived severity of norm violations increase the likelihood of RIO capitulation, while a draw is more likely if the factors point in different directions.

To the article: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/13691481251396876