Technology Dynamics and Strategic Intelligence: Foresight and Indicator-based Assessment supporting Policy Instrument Selection
One core driver for a successful sustainable economy is the use and proper application of new technologies in energy supply, manufacturing and transport. Many of these technologies are in their infant stage. Hence, assessing the state of science and technology and their development prospects is necessary. Furthermore, the effective use of research, technology and innovation policy instruments fostering their progress depends heavily on the stage of development of the technology and the characteristics of the related technological innovation system.
Theories and concepts of technology assessment, sciencometrics and diffusion of innovations have to be combined. Approaches based on evolutionary innovation economics such as Dosi’s trajectory concept or Roger’s fundamental work on innovation diffusion will be merged with the technometric analysis e.g. by Hariolf Grupp. Systematizing policy instruments need a good understanding of mechanisms, target group characteristics and implementation procedures. Both have to be matched in order to synchronizes technical progress and its shaping by policy.
The contribution will provide a general model for a science-and-technology cycle as well as a set of indicators. Furthermore, it will discuss the preconditions necessary for a successful use of different policy tools. An illustrating example from energy generation with fuel cells will be shown as well.