Horizon Scanning and Trend Monitoring as an Instrument of Environmental Policies for Strategic Early Warning and Effective Policy Advice
The main reasons for the construction of a Horizon Scanning System are the apparent acceleration of ecological processes on the one hand and socio-economic changes on the other hand. For politicians, this raises the question of whether reactive breathlessness can be countered by earlier problem solving. Especially in Germany, environmental policy is committed to a precautionary principle and to the concept of intergenerational sustainability.
The Project is divided into three phases:
AP 1: Preparation: Design and testable construction of one of the specific requirements of the environmental ministry / UBA Horizon Scanning System. The first step of procedure includes
1. The analysis of the information needs and the functions of a Horizon Scanning System.
2. The evaluation of existing systems.
3. Proposals for a strategic design of the HSS including an appropriate search pattern.
AP 2: Horizon Scanning Report (Pilot): Trends and the emerging issues on the environment and sustainable development.
For this purpose, a scanning phase is performed first and an assessment with a view of environmental relevance and the significance of the phenomena for environmental policy is conducted. Of 20 trends and emerging issues, 10 will be examined. A HS-report will serve as a basis for the derivation of strategic conclusions and recommendations for the environmental department.
AP 3: Project Evaluation: The development of an implementation proposal for the use of a Horizon Scanning System in the BMU (Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety) and UBA (Umweltbundesamt). This phase contains
1. Analysis of strengths / weaknesses / time and effort of the pilot version, compared with alternatives.
2. Lessons learned from the pilot version.
3. Workshop on the evaluation of the pilot variations in the UBA (Umwelt Bundesamt).
4. Proposal for a system concept for the construction of a continuing HS-system, taking into account the available capacity.
A distinction is made on a methodical and technical-personal level and on a substantive moderate communicative level.
The result is a design of a Horizon Scanning System concept and the expected benefits for environmental research and environmental policy in Germany.
Keywords: Horizon Scanning, Umweltpolitik, Politikberatung, strategische Früherkennung, Informationssystem, Deutschland
Behrendt, Siegfried/ Zieschank, Roland/ Van Nouhuys, Jo/ Scharp, Michael (2015): „Horizon Scanning“ und Trendmonitoring als ein Instrument in der Umweltpolitik zur strategischen Früherkennung und effizienten Politikberatung. – Konzeptstudie. Schlussbericht zum Vorhaben FKZ 3712 11 104. Teil I, Dessau.
Scharp, Michael/ Behrendt, Siegfried/ Zieschank, Roland/ Van Nouhuys, Jo (2015): Horizon Scanning als ein Instrument in der Umweltpolitik zur strategischen Früherkennung und effizienten Politikberatung. – Scan-Report Güterverkehr. Schlussbericht zum Vorhaben FKZ 3712 11 104. Teil II, Berlin.
- Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung, Berlin
- Firma Condat AG, Berlin